The Bank of England haven’t been doing a great job on economic predictions for the past 4 or 5 years – which is a bit of pity given their central role in the economy – so should we take seriously their latest predictions that growth for the UK this year is going to be non-existent? Given they have been consistently over optimistic in the past I guess we can safely assume that the economy will shrink. Not good – so lets hope for once they are being pessimistic.
So where’s the good news other than in rowing, cycling and Team GB t-shirt sales?
For us the good news is in the online retail world where growth is the norm. According to IMRG year on year growth is 13%. And that is further supported by the British Retail Consortium with help from KPMG who suggest 2012 will see retail generating £77Bn online. So that’s all looking rather good – especially when you consider that the UK is a big benefactor of online growth in Europe, according to IMRG 30% of all cross border e-retail trade involves UK e-tailers.
Growth in online retail is far from a UK or European phenomenon obviously, consider for instance the rapidly developing online world in Latin America. In the territory annual revenue growth rates are 30% among web only retailers – and importantly Amazon isn’t necessarily the dominant player with Brazilian B2W Inc enjoying much higher revenues than Amazon and growth of 30%+ (source www.internetretailer.com) . This growth against a back drop of relatively low internet penetration – circa 37% in Brazil for instance.
So given that you don’t have to be accurate to make predictions (as with the BoE) allow me to make a few:
(i) the UK online world will continue to flourish as it continues to act as the anchor for European cross border online retail trade.
(ii) Latin America will produce a global challenger to Amazon and/or eBay.
(ii) The need for online aggregation services such as our marketplace management service, Seller Dynamics, will continue to grow at a double digit rate.